Analyzing Measure 66
What the proposed income tax increase would cost you
By Peter Wong
Statesman Journal
Even though fewer than 3 percent of Oregon taxpayers would have to pay more, every Oregon voter will have the chance in a Jan. 26 statewide election to decide the fate of increased personal-income taxes contained in Measure 66.
Unlike a couple of previous across-the-board increases that voters rejected in 2003 and 2004, Measure 66 would raise personal income taxes only on higher-end households — generally more than $250,000 in taxable income for joint returns, and $125,000 for individual filers.
Those households would face higher marginal rates on income exceeding the limits, and a phase-out of the maximum $5,850 they can subtract in federal taxes on their state returns.
"The two policies that raise revenue are concentrated on those filers at the top end of the income distribution," said a November report by the Legislative Revenue Office, the nonpartisan staff that analyzes tax measures for lawmakers.
Measure 66 would raise an estimated net of$472 million from personal income taxes, after $32 million is subtracted for a partial tax break on unemployment benefits.
Together with Measure 67, which would raise a net of $255 million in corporate taxes and fees, Oregon expects to collect $727 million to help close a $4 billion gap projected between income for state coffers and amounts required to maintain services at 2007-09 levels.
Lawmakers also cut$2 billion, tapped about$1 billion from federal economic-recovery aid, and shifted $255 million from reserves and other funds to balance the current two-year budget.
Measure 67 was the focus of a question-and-answer story on Oct. 25.
Although businesses are primarily affected by Measure 67, Measure 66 would have the effect of increasing personal income taxes on some business owners and shareholders — those who do not pay corporate income or minimum taxes but pay taxes on profits channeled through businesses.
Although lawmakers approved both increases with the 60 percent majorities required by the Oregon Constitution, opponents — led by business groups — gathered enough signatures to force a statewide election on the measures. Neither can take effect until voters decide their fate Jan. 26. Mail ballots will reach voters starting Saturday.
A "yes" vote upholds the increases, which would take effect 30 days after the election; a "no" vote rejects them.
Measure 66 refers to voters House Bill 2649, which deals with the personal income tax.
Below is a closer look at Measure 66, based on a November report by the Legislative Revenue Office on the two tax measures and Oregon public finances. Some information also comes from the Oregon Department of Revenue and the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Background
Question: How many taxpayers will be affected by the higher taxes?
Answer: The best estimate is about 38,000 (2.5 percent) of the 1.54 million personal-income tax returns filed annually, according to Rosemary Hardin, a spokeswoman for the Oregon Department of Revenue. That share is projected to increase to 3.6 percent by 2013.
Of the 1.8 million returns filed in 2008 for the 2007 tax year, according to the department, 26,866 joint returns and 3,784 individual filers reported adjusted gross income of $250,000 or more. There also were 19,677 individual filers reporting adjusted gross income of between $100,000 and $250,000 in 2007. However, the higher tax rate under Measure 66 kicks in after $125,000 AGI, so not all individual filers in this category would have to pay more.
Q: What is adjusted gross income?
A: Adjusted gross income is the sum of various sources of income, such as wages, net business income, pensions and capital gains. It is the starting point for calculating Oregon taxable income, which is AGI plus additions minus subtractions, such as the deduction for federal taxes, which is explained below.
Q: What is taxable income?
A: For most taxpayers, "taxable income" is about 70 percent of AGI, but increases to 90 percent for filers with an AGI exceeding $500,000. Taxable income is almost always less than adjusted gross income, according to the Legislative Revenue Office. The difference is important because of the two ways that Measure 66 affects higher-end households (see below).
Q: When did Oregon begin to tax personal income?
A: In 1930, when the top rate was 5 percent and the top tax bracket for a joint return was $8,000. There were five brackets back then. The top marginal rate, top bracket and numbers of brackets have fluctuated over the years. The top rate was as high as11.6 percent in 1955-56 and 10.8 percent in 1982-84 — both periods during which lawmakers faced budget shortfalls.
Q: When was the current top rate set?
A: In 1987, following a 1986 overhaul of the federal tax code, definitions from which Oregon uses with some exceptions. The 1987 change collapsed seven tax brackets into three — the top bracket for a joint return is just $10,000, although it is adjusted for inflation — and the top rate was trimmed from10 percent to the current9 percent. (The 1987 law also reduced corporate income taxes from 7.5 percent to 6.6 percent.)
Q: How much does the personal income tax raise?
A: According to the Department of Revenue, the 2007 returns raised about $5.6 billion in 2008. It is by far the largest source of money for the state general fund, which pays for most state services and aid to public schools
The changes
Q: How would things change under Measure 66?
A: There are three basic changes, according to the Legislative Revenue Office.
The simplest change is a tax cut averaging $120 for an estimated 270,000 taxpayers, because Measure 66 would shield the first $2,400 in unemployment benefits from state taxes. It would follow a similar federal tax break, which was contained in the economic-stimulus legislation that President Obama signed on Feb. 17. This break actually costs the state $32 million.
Q: What about the actual increases?
A: The change that has received the most attention is higher marginal tax rates for individual filers with taxable incomes of at least $125,000 and joint returns with taxable incomes of at least $250,000. These amounts are usually less than "adjusted gross income."
For individuals with taxable incomes between $125,000 and $250,000 — and joint returns with taxable incomes between $250,000 and $500,000 — they will pay a marginal tax rate of 10.8 percent on the excess amounts.
Example: For a couple earning $260,000 in taxable income, the first $250,000 will continue to be taxed at 9 percent maximum — $22,500 — but they will pay 10.8 percent, instead of 9 percent, on the remaining $10,000. That's an extra $180 on top of the $900 they would pay now.
For individuals with taxable incomes exceeding $250,000 — and joint returns with taxable incomes exceeding $500,000 — they will pay a marginal tax rate of 11 percent on the excess amounts.
Example: For a couple earning $550,000 in taxable income, the first $250,000 is taxes at 9 percent, the second at 10.8 percent, and the remaining $50,000 at 11 percent. Their tax bill at a flat 9 percent is $49,500; at the new marginal rates, it would be $55,000.
Q: What's the other change that affects higher-end earners?
A: The change has drawn less attention, but Measure 66 phases out the maximum subtraction of federal taxes they can take on their returns. This change is linked to "adjusted gross income," not taxable income.
For 2009, personal-income tax filers may subtract up to $5,850 — but for individual filers with more than $125,000 adjusted gross income or joint returns with more than $250,000 adjusted gross income, that amount is reduced in steps until it is phased out at $145,000 and $290,000 AGI. Households with greater AGIs could not take this deduction under Measure 66.
Example: A joint return with $260,000 AGI could subtract only $4,680 in federal taxes, not the maximum of $5,850.
Q: How much more overall in taxes will these households pay?
A: It depends on how close they are to the limits. For joint returns between $250,000 and $500,000 AGI, the average tax increase is projected at $1,130; for joint returns exceeding $500,000, the average increase is $14,969.
Q: How long do these increases last?
A: For tax years 2009 through 2012. (See below for a discussion of permanent increases contained in the measure.) The changes would raise a projected $504 million for the 2009-11 budget, although as noted above, $32 million is subtracted for a tax break on unemployment benefits.
Q: Were insufficient taxes withheld for some of these households for 2009?
A: Probably, but Hardin of the Department of Revenue said these taxpayers can pay the difference by April 15 in a lump sum or by credit card, or through monthly payment plans arranged through her agency. For 2010 and subsequent years, Hardin said affected taxpayers can change their estimated tax payments to account for the higher marginal rates.
Other effects
Q: Are some business owners affected?
A: Yes, depending on how their business is organized.
Oregon's 33,000 C-corporations, which are subject to federal corporate income taxes under subchapter C of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code, do not pay personal income taxes. They will be subject to higher corporate income taxes — or a higher corporate minimum tax, but not both — contained in Measure 67.
However, shareholders and owners of about 55,000 S-corporations — which are not subject to federal corporate income taxes — limited-liability companies, limited-liability partnerships and sole proprietorships are subject to personal income taxes on profits passed through their businesses.
Virtually all S-corporations now pay only the corporate minimum tax of $10, which would increase to $150 under Measure 67.
Q: What about the permanent increases in Measure 66?
A: For individual filers with more than $125,000 in taxable income, and joint returns with more than $250,000 in taxable income, Measure 66 would impose a top marginal rate of9.9 percent on the excess amounts starting in 2013. It would raise a projected $375 million for the 2011-13 budget.
For a couple earning $260,000 in taxable income, as mentioned above, they still would pay $22,500 on the first $250,000 — but under Measure 66, $990 on the additional $10,000,$90 more than they would pay under current law.
Q: Doesn't Oregon already have a high personal income tax?
A: Yes, but according to the Legislative Revenue Office report, its ranking among the states would not change if voters uphold Measure 66. Measured by percentage of income, Oregon would remain second highest; measured per-capita, Oregon would remain fifth highest.
Oregon would remain low among the states in total taxes. It is one of five states without a general sales tax, it does not levy a statewide property tax, and local property taxes are limited by state ballot measures.
Q: How do Measures 66 and 67 differ from previous tax measures?
A: The personal income tax increases contained in Measure 66 are focused on higher-end earners. That was not the case with Measure 28, which lawmakers referred in 2002 but voters rejected in 2003, or with Measure 30, which lawmakers passed in 2003 but voters rejected in 2004 after opponents petitioned successfully for a statewide election.
There has been no statewide election on corporate tax changes, such as proposed in Measure 67, in at least 30 years.
Q: Have other states increased personal income taxes to balance their budgets?
A: Yes. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, they are California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Increases were proposed in other states, but failed in the legislature or were vetoed by the governor. More states may consider increases this year as their tax collections lag behind the national economic recovery.
Q: Do those other increases have anything in common?
A: Yes. In all states except California — which simply increased income-tax rates by 0.25 percent across the board — the increases are targeted on upper-income households. Perhaps the biggest increases were in Hawaii, where lawmakers — over the governor's veto — raised rates from 8.25 percent to 11 percent on individual filers earning more than $150,000 and joint returns of more than $300,000.
pwong@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6745
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